虽然很难，但这可能是战胜疫情的唯一办法 | 双语阅读

经济学家普遍认为，世界上的大多数国家都是经济全球化的受益者。即使有个别国家认为自己没有公平地享受到全球化的红利，那也不应归咎于全球化，而应归咎于该国的收入分配和税收政策。突如其来的新冠疫情对全球化进程带来了重大挑战，截至4月7日，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过133万例，累计死亡逾7.4万例。但这无法逆转全球化的历史进程，事实上，此刻没有哪个国家能独善其身。只有推动全球在医疗、科技、财政等领域的合作，才能帮助大家度过眼前的艰难时刻。中欧国际工商学院经济学教授芮博澜（Bala Ramasamy）为《中国日报》（China Daily）撰写了题为《国际合作是抗击疫情的唯一办法》（Unity is the only way to beat the pandemic）的文章，详述了其中逻辑，本文是其双语呈现。

Leaders from the G20 major economies showed it was possible to take special measures together to tackle the coronavirus pandemic by convening a video conference for the first time ever recently. Sitting in their respective meeting rooms in capitals all around the world, as they gathered with their aides around screens and monitors, statesmen must have had much to ponder as they exchanged views in such an isolated and peculiar manner. Could this disruption to normal communications be the springboard needed to get international economic co-operation and the world’s stalled globalisation project back on track? 

不久前，二十国集团（G20）主要领导人史无前例地召开了一次视频峰会。在会上，各国表示将联合采取措施以对抗新冠疫情。政治家们待在位于各国首都的办公室中，在屏幕与监视器前的助手们的帮助下，以一种既隔绝又特殊的方式交流观点，他们的所思所想一定很多。这种非常规的沟通方式能否推动国际经济合作，并让陷入停滞的全球化重返正轨？

Globalisation has been in retreat since 2018, if global trade in goods is a reliable indicator. Trade volume grew by a mere 0.6 percent in 2018, and even lower at 0.3 percent in 2019. Economists and think tanks put this down to increasing trade tensions between the United States and China. For a brief moment, things were looking up in the last quarter of 2019 following the inking of a US-China phase-one trade agreement. The positivity, however, was short-lived. No one could have imagined that, soon afterward, a novel viral strain would lead to such devastation in the global economic environment. The world watched as China locked down its cities and ramped up its healthcare network — building hospitals in a matter of days — as it reported an exponential growth in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Little did the world realise that Act 2 of the same play would take place in other countries barely two months later. Today, country after country has implemented their own versions of lockdowns and closed their borders. Hotels, exhibition centres and stadiums are being turned into temporary health facilities. Global production is grinding to a halt as lockdowns take effect across the globe. 

2018年以来，全球化持续呈现衰退趋势。全球货物贸易量的变化清楚表明了这一点：2018年，全球货物贸易量仅增长了0.6%，2019年的增幅更低，只有0.3%。经济学家和各国智囊团将原因归为中美之间的贸易摩擦。2019年最后一个季度，中美两国就贸易摩擦达成了第一阶段协议。但是，这一积极态势并没有维持多久。没有人能预料到，突如其来的一种新型冠状病毒会给全球经济环境带来毁灭性打击。在全球目光的注视下，面对呈指数级增长的确诊病例和死亡病例，中国采取了封城措施，并迅速启动了本国的卫生医疗应急系统（包括在几天之内建成多家医院）。其他国家很少有人意识到，同样的剧情会在短短两个月之后在自己的国家上演。目前，各国已陆续采取封城和边境关闭等措施。酒店、展览中心、体育馆正在被改建成临时医院。随着封闭措施被普遍采用，全球生产活动正逐渐陷入停滞。

A global recession is not only imminent, but we may already be experiencing one. Perhaps it was a blessing to the world that China — the factory of the world — is now beginning to come back to life, and is the only economy that is capable of meeting the pent-up global demand for essential supplies of necessities, including surgical masks, personal protective equipment and ventilators. Nevertheless, the current economic crisis will fluctuate between being a supply problem and a demand problem. As the supply chain in China roars back to life, demand from the rest of the world will be sluggish, particularly for nonessential products. It will take time for both demand and supply to recover in tandem. The V-shaped recovery predicted a month ago by some economists is fading. 

全球性的经济衰退即将来临——或许已经来临。有着“世界工厂”之称的中国现已步入复苏阶段，这对世界而言或许是个好消息，因为各国目前急需口罩、个人防护装备、呼吸机等重要物资，中国是唯一有能力满足这些需求的经济体。但是，当前的经济危机涉及到供需两个方面。尽管中国的供应链正在恢复正常，但世界其他地区的需求——尤其是对非必需品的需求——仍无法摆脱疲软的现状。供需两端都恢复正常尚需时日。某些经济学家在一个月前预测，世界经济将呈现V字形的复苏曲线。这一预测显得过于乐观了。

There is a general consensus among economists that globalisation has benefitted most if not all countries, and that a reversal in this process will have a negative impact on economic growth. Industrialised countries have actually gained more from globalisation because the income gap between developed and developing countries has increased in absolute terms between 1990 and 2016. The critique against globalisation, especially among politicians in Western industrialised countries, is that the benefits of globalisation have not been shared equitably among the population. This is not the fault of globalisation, but rather the income distribution and taxation policies of the countries concerned.

经济学家普遍认为，即使不是所有国家，全球化也已惠及大部分国家，逆全球化将对经济增长造成负面影响。工业化国家从全球化进程中获益良多，因为按绝对值计算，1990-2016年，发展中国家和发达国家之间的收入差距有所扩大。全球化的批评者，尤其是西方工业化国家的政治人士则认为，世界各国并没有公平地享受到全球化所带来的红利。但是，这不应归咎于全球化，而应归咎于相关国家的收入分配和税收政策。

The irony is that the solution to the current darkness faced by the world today is greater globalisation. Many of the pressing problems faced by countries now, such as climate change or the current COVID-19 pandemic, require global solutions. National level attempts at addressing these issues will fail or, at best, only delay the impact. Nations must come together and work out the best approach at resolving these problems collectively. Scientists around the world have to share their ideas and resources to find a vaccine and a remedy to defeat this invisible enemy. Or at least, disease control experts and pharmaceutical companies must race to find a cure so that the healing of the world can happen. 

事实上，只有推动全球化才能让世界度过当前的至暗时刻。目前，各国都面临很多亟待解决的问题，例如气候变化、新冠疫情等，这需要全球性的解决方案来应对。只靠本国力量来应对这些问题终将以失败而告终，最多只能延缓这些问题所产生的影响。各国必须齐心协力，共同研究出最有效的应对方案。全球各地的科学家必须分享自己的观点和资源，通过研制疫苗和药物来对抗新冠病毒这一人类看不见的敌人。至少，各国的疾病防控专家和制药公司必须竞相寻找治疗方法，以让全球疫情尽快得到控制。

On the economic front, a coordinated and synchronised global fiscal stimulus package is being called for by the International Monetary Fund — one that is similar to the actions taken to overcome the financial crisis of 2008-09, but at a scale several times larger. There is sufficient experience from various crises in the past that when the international community acts together in a coordinated way, confidence re-emerges and growth follows. No single country will be able to overcome its economic woes alone. Perhaps we should look at the world as one country and humankind its citizens.

在经济领域，国际货币基金组织号召世界各国以协调一致的方式采取财政刺激一揽子计划。该计划与2008-2009年金融危机期间所采取的措施相似，但规模数倍于后者。以往有很多这样的例子：在面临各种各样的危机时，随着国际社会协调采取措施，民众重拾信心，经济恢复增长。没有哪个国家能够单打独斗地解决本国经济问题。或许，我们应该把整个世界看成一个国家，把人类都看成这个国家的公民。

For this to happen, global leadership is necessary. But, alas, there has been a vacuum in such leadership in recent years. Nationalism and populism have been used to usurp power for self-aggrandizement. The respect accorded to such narrow-minded leaders is diminishing. Others, whether from the developing world or from smaller nations, will have to step up to fill this vacuum. No doubt, the nation is any leader’s top priority, but “beggar thy neighbour” policies have never resulted in any good for anyone. Rallying the whole world together to fight a common enemy seems to be the only path to victory. And once on the other side, there will be a deeper appreciation of the power of unity. Nature is perhaps trying to teach us an important lesson. Globalisation is a natural phenomenon, and like the virus that is impervious to borders, nationality, creed and class, so too should we overcome such barriers and realise the strength in interdependence. The future of the world depends on it.

为此，各国必须展现全球领导力。近年来，国际社会存在领导力真空。民族主义和民粹主义被用作攫取权力、自我扩张的工具。思想狭隘的领导人将越来越得不到尊重。其他国家，包括发展中国家和小国的领导人必须去填补这一真空。一个国家的领导人肯定要把本国利益放在首位，但是，以邻为壑的政策从来都是损人不利己的。世界各国团结起来对抗共同的敌人可能是战胜疫情的唯一办法。同时，这也能让各国更深刻地感受到团结的力量。这次疫情可能是大自然给予人类的重要一课。和新冠病毒一样，全球化也是一种自然现象，不受边界、国籍、信仰和阶层的限制。因此，我们应该超越这些障碍，在相互依存中产生力量。世界的未来有赖于此。

编辑 | Michael Thede，雷娜

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